RBI October 2026 policy: Key numbers

5.50%: the new repo rate, up 25 basis points.

7.1%: the FY27 GDP growth forecast, up from 6.7%.

5.2%: the FY27 inflation forecast, up from 5.0%.

6-0: the vote on the rate hike. 4: members who backed the stance shift.

Feb 2023: the last time the RBI raised the repo rate.

The RBI raised its FY27 inflation forecast to 5.2% from 5.0% in August.

It raised its FY27 GDP growth forecast to 7.1% from 6.7%.

Consumer price inflation was 4.8% in August, up from 4.5% in July, and core inflation was 4.2%, according to Forbes India.

Governor Sanjay Malhotra said rate cuts are off the table in the near term and that the next move can only be a hike or a pause, according to Forbes India.

Credit growth is running at about 19%, among the highest on record, according to the same report.

The backdrop is Brent crude near $100 a barrel, a weaker rupee and rate hikes by some other central banks, including the US Federal Reserve.

The repo rate was cut by a cumulative 125 basis points in 2025, from 6.5% to 5.25%, and was held at 5.25% for four consecutive meetings before this hike.

Business Standard’s poll had found that eight of 10 respondents expected a 25-basis-point hike.

The Sensex and Nifty had risen for two sessions into the decision, closing on October 6 at 73,067.81 and 22,776.10.

The repo rate is the rate at which the RBI lends short-term funds to banks, and loans linked to it tend to reprice when it changes.

On an illustrative Rs 50 lakh home loan over 25 years, a rise from 7.50% to 7.75% would raise the EMI by about Rs 810 a month, according to Business Today.

BankBazaar’s chief executive noted that the hike is only a fraction of the 125 basis points of cuts delivered earlier, so much of the earlier EMI relief remains.

Reserve Bank of India building, Mumbai (file image), Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0